The Bulin Wall

Ok, so we are all aware that Khabibulin is facing possible jailtime for his little *glug glug vroom vroom* incident. And we are also aware that Tambellini is looking to continue his rebuild. The Bullin wall cant possibly be an honest part of that rebuild.
But if they were to trade/buyout Khabi he would be admitting that he made a mistake. For one of the first decisions he made as the GM here, it would be a big black mark on his resume if he were to make that admission.

I personally didnt like the deal from day one. Twice the length of term the Oilers needed, to be able to phase in the young goalies they already had in the system. And twice the price a good vet like Roloson (eg) would have cost. Plainly put, it was a stab at a big fish intended to keep the new owner happy and it did absolutly nothing for the team. Guys like that are about to become a thing of the past. An honest contender isnt going to bank on a guy that oft injured, and a building team would keep him to very short terms and simply hope for the best.

So the more I think about it, I'm thinking that the Oilers are secretly hoping he DOES get some jail time. Nothing serious, I'm sure there is no animosity towards Khabi. But if he cannot make it to training camp, they have grounds to say he is breach of his contract. There is no need to buy him out or make a trade, the contract would become null and void. The Oilers can publicly say that they do not stand for drinking and driving, and they get to wash their hands with out any harm to the team. The thing that isn't great about this is the timing. With July 1 upon us, Tanbi still doesn't know what he has to work with. Is it worth signing a goalie this year? Does he take the risk of having FOUR tenders on the team? Thats an even bigger risk than signing Khabi to begin with. Now I suppose he can sign someone, and then send both JDD and Dubnik down to the minors if Khabibulin beats the rap, maybe even hoping one of them gets picked up on waivers (This way there isnt a backlog in OKC either) but it is a risk. The Oilers GM has shown some stones this offseason, but I'm curious to see if he has enough to make this particular move.

In any case, there are several goalies on the market this summer, and Tabellini may very well be thinking of taking a chance and signing (at the very least) a heck of a backup for Khabi (and at most) a new starter.

Damn, I cant wait till tomorrow.

Tyler Pitlick

So,

I've been doing alot of reading about this kid, and there is something that struck me this morning. He is going to be a heck of a third line center. Good faceoff's, decent speed, strong shot, and has some hands. He can score short handed and he has had plenty of PK time in his development. He is no where near a first line center, but if there are injuries, he could slot nicely into the second line role and he wont hurt the team. The more I think about this pick the more I am happy with it. He say's the right things, he is leaving school to continue his development in the WHL. He is everything a team wants in a good pro. I didnt much like most of the other draft picks after 31, but I think Pitlick was a hell of a choice and considering that the team has alot of skilled forwards coming in, there is little chance that Pitlick will be over valued. He will be a hell of a third line guy, and rebuilding the bottom 6 was exactly what this team needed.

Although I am aware that at the moment there is no room for him on the team,  I am very curious to see him play in training camp. He likes to throw his body around and he is a two-way center. This is one of the types of players this team is looking for. If he honestly impresses with his defensive game, throws some big hits while backing it up if nessesary and pots a few goals who know's he may actually make the team. And if he doesnt make the big club, he will be a player that will be just a phone call and a short flight away from trying again.

I am really in love with the youth movement on this team right now. And it has very little to do with the Chicago's out there. I have no illusions that the Oilers will be a contender right away. But what DOES have me a little giddy is that they are finally building an entire team out of the youngsters. Several of the needed role players for a good team have already been drafted or aquired and they now have the opportunity to grow up together. There is a good mix developing and as long as Tambi doesnt blow his wad and go sign a bunch of aging UFA's they will have the makings of a solid, long term team.

Jason Gregor has some great ideas on Oilersnation this morning for the types of players the Oilers should be targeting tomorrow. Very little there to disagree with. Let's hope Tambellini has the same idea and doesnt go nuts trying to land a big fish. I would like to see Souray gone in a couple day's. Wait for UFA season to cool a little bit and see what teams out there are still looking for his type of player. Then make a direct trade for another D-Man.

I'm getting excited. By this time tomorrow I will be hovering around my TV, computer, twitter and the radio waiting to see how the final roster will shape up. If draft day was like christmas, tomorrow is like New Years Eve.

I'm sure I will have more to come tomorrow :)

Cap Management

So in watching how teams keep getting into cap trouble I thought it would be fun to put out my idea of the "ideal" cap manament system.
It's common knowledge that every team wants to keep all their good players. And on the same token it's pretty common to see teams give up those players because they overspent. Either on that particular player or on lesser talent (like Horcoff).

So I started looking at the percentages that a team should employ to decide what they are going to spend on each line, Defense pairing and Goalies.

Considering that a team is going to ice 20 players, and 12 are going to be forwards, 6 are defense and 2 are goalies, lets look at the overal percentages.

With forwards making up 60% of the overall players, it would seem that they should have 60% of the cap spent on them. My guess is 30% on Defense and 10% on Goalies. So this means about $35.64M on the forwards, $17.82M on defense, and $5.94M on goalies.

This is approx $2.97M per player.

Now thats a HEFTY raise for a 3-4 liner and a giant haircut for a first liner so obviously there has to be some give and take.

Of course any GM is going to make things a little cheaper than what I will put up here, but assuming that, said GM is willing to go nuts tight to the cap, this in my opinion is the best averages available.

1st line------ $6.47M    --    $6.47M    --    $6.47M
2nd line ---- $2.97M     --    $2.97M    --    $2.97M
3rd line ----  $1.50M     --    $1.50M   --     $1.50M
4th line  ---- $1.00M   --      $1.00M    --    $1.00M

Defense:

1st pairing------$5.47M -----$5.47M
2nd pairing-----$2.50M------$2.50M
3rd pairing-----$1.00M------$1.00M

Goalies:

Starter--------$4.50M
Backup-------$1.50M

My idea on how a team should be run is that the 2nd and 4th line should be rookies and cheap vets. The 3rd defense pairing should be rookies and the 2nd pairing should be cheap vets. and the back up goalie should be a rookie. This is the begining of the turnover model. If a rookie is getting to the point where they can take over as a top line player, they get the pay raise, move up the line structure and the player they replace can be moved for more assets or picks. (this does require that the positions be built very similar in style so that players can be plugged into higher positions with out messing up the structure of the line) eg. If the top line center is a right handed playmaker, the goal would be to have the second line center ALSO a right handed playmaker. The same goes for defense too. The fourth line is designed to eventually take over for the 3rd line and so on and so forth.

Of course money would fluctuate a bit from player to player and having rookies in the lineup helps alot, but if the GM would recognize what the maximum salaries they can spend on each position was, there would be very little in the way of  cap problems. Lol, and of course they should really have their capologists on hand on July 1 to ensure they dont go hog wild signing guys for dollars WAY over and above what they are worth. UFA hangovers are bitch and they can last for years. If they plan on signing a second line player, they have to recognize that there is a maximum dollar value they can spend. The list goes on for all positions.

Teams are slowly figuring this out, and we are seeing more and more UFA`s not getting contracts that suit them. So they are either retiring early, or moving to other leagues like the KHL. This isnt as bad a thought as most people think. It is going to eventually drop the average salary of the middling players to respectable value and those said players will either be back, or at the very least when the new crop of middling players are ready for contracts they will be willing to get paid their proper value. Decisions on where to play will start to be made less on the dollars they will recieve and more on the structure of the team and if they will eventually have a shot at the Stanley Cup. Of course there will always be some greedy players, and certain teams will always jump at signing a player that is way over valued. But for the most part this will lend to more parity around the league and better overall product on the ice.


Until next time.