Thursday, September 15, 2011

Training Camp Predictions 2011/2012



Hall - Horcoff - Eberle
Smyth - Gagner - Hemsky
Paajarvi - Belanger - Jones
Eager - Lander - Brule
Omark Hordichuk

Whitney - Gilbert
Barker - Petry
Peckham - Smid
Sutton

Dubnyk
Khabibulin

This is my prediction of how the team will look opening night on October 9, 2011 against the Pittsburgh Penguins. I invite Heazues to come back after opening night and ridicule the Jebus out of me for how wrong I was. I have a feeling Mr. Nugent-Hopkins will end up making me look like a buffoon, but thats the way it goes. Also, I hope Whitney and Hemsky are healthy and ready to roll at that point.

Building a team from the ground up



So the MSM has been spouting something that is driving me insane. They keep saying that the Oilers are building the team the "right way". I completely disagree.

Oh I understand that they are gathering as many high picks as they can and they are trying to groom as many players as they can but what they haven't done is build the structure of the team first and then focus on upgrades.

See, my idea of a properly built team is to start with a play maker, power forward and a sniper/shooter on every line. Yes I mean every line including the 4th line. No I don't mean that the 4th line needs to be considered a scoring line but every player should be a competent player as well as having a specific role. This is the best way to institute a proper system and allows guys to slide up and down the lineup with out screwing everything else up in the process.

Once the STRUCTURE is set, THEN the team can start looking to upgrade on the players they have on the roster. It makes it easier to draft & groom players for specific roles with out trying to force them into roles they don't really fit into just to keep a "good player" in the system. (yes I am thinking about the Pitlick experiment of having him play the wing.)

*Anger alert* If you are sensitive about the new kids in the system stop reading now!

This is why I am convinced that RNH was the wrong pick for the Oilers to make at the draft. I don't deny it, Hopkins is going to be a great player and he will probably (baring injury) have a long career. What bothers me about that pick is that he WILL play with Taylor Hall and I do not for a second feel that he is a proper fit. He shoots the wrong way to set up with Hall properly, he is a play maker so unless Hall is going to restrict himself to being a shooter it would not work. I think that having Hall restrict himself in any manner is a waste of the best talent the Oilers have and it would diminish the over all effectiveness of the franchise player. Now if RNH could play on the second line then maybe he could work but how often do you see a 1st overall pick NOT play on the top line?? My idea is that it doesn't necessarily benefit the team structure to force the "best" center to play with your franchise player.

In my opinion a guy like Pitlick fits as the shooter on Hall's line long term. But as the management has shown, they are more willing to try him at wing rather than understand what they have in him as a center. And even if they do figure out that he is a center through and through I am still not convinced that they are going to have him play in the role he should be. IMO he will end up as a 2nd line center at best but probably a 3rd line winger long term.

This is why RNH wasn't the best pick for the Oilers regardless of where he sat in the draft rankings. There is a time to take the BPA and then there is a time to take the player that will fit long term. I think the Oilers should have focused on taking a more complete 2-way center or a stud defender rather than being star struck with Hopkins.

Now it might seem like I am beating up on Hopkins and that isn't the case. In fact I am beating up on Tambellini because I think he has lost sight of what it takes to build a team and had become a hoarder of picks and prospects. Before it is too late I think he should get back to basics and evaluate what he has for a team. I think now is the time to start putting the pieces together, getting the structure together to sustain a team model long term and THEN he can start upgrading on said players.

Since I don't want to spout off all these crazy ideas with out backing up my thinking I will put together what I think the structure should look like.

Power forward-Shooter-Play maker-Top scoring line that can go head to head with any top line
Power forward-Shooter-Play maker-2nd scoring line that can eat less mins and contribute to the PP
Power forward-Shooter-Play maker-Shutdown line that chips in offence regularly
Power forward-Shooter-Play maker-Bruiser line that can hold its own defensively

Puck mover-Shutdown-big min eaters that pass the puck well and keep the GA as low as possible
Puck carrier-Big shooter-Decent min eater and PP contributors
Tough shutdown-PK specialist-PK specialists

I wont worry about goalies in this as really as long as you have a couple goalies that can hold their own everything will come out in the wash anyway.

Of course the actual order in which the lines are set up will be determined by the skills and positions the players the Oilers employ, but you get the jist of it. So having a line with Hemsky and Gagner is already broken before it is even tried. And if Tambellini figures this out he will be able to take this team far in its rebuild. If he cannot, then we are doomed to watch the Oilers become the next Phoenix or Washington. Phoenix has plenty of good prospects but they do not have the structure to sustain a good team and Washington has arguably the best player in the game today and I ask "how are they faring in the playoffs?" People compare the Oilers to Chicago or Pittsburgh but I think at the moment they are still a very long way away from being these teams simply because they have not nailed down the structure before they are relying on the prospects to take off.

I think the time is now, but the Oilers have some decisions to make on players ALOT of fans aren't going to like before they can truly take a step forward.

until next time.

Sunday, September 11, 2011

Oilers / Vancouver Rookie game #1



Game one of the rookie tournament and there was a few players to watch. #1 on my list was Anton Lander and a close #2 was RNH.

the one thing that i have seen so far is that Lander is the closest to being NHL ready out of all the prospects shown tonight. Its not just the goal scoring (which i do not think will transfer over to the NHL so easily) but the over all hockey sense seems to be much higher than any of the other prospects so far.

RNH is close, he had more than a couple moments in the game that showed that he belongs in the mix even if i think his downsides should be enough to send him back to red deer.

I originally thought that the Oilers were not showing anything that said they were "dominant" and then all of a sudden they explode for a 7-1 lead going into the 3rd. With the right coaching there are several prospects there that can make an impact for sure.

The physical game seemed to be a stalemate as nobody seemed to take over and start steam rolling the other team but there was quite a bit of contact and the fights were quite entertaining. Teubert took a bad punch in one of those dustups that left his legs a little wobbly. Being early in his pro career I wonder if that will be a deterant for him in the future as he was touted as a fairly tough defender and it would be a bad thing if he held back that end of his game because he doesnt want to take a shot like that again.

Goal tending seemed to be solid from Roy. He wasnt shaken at any point and showed his athleticism and his hockey sense from the get go. I am curious just how far this kid can go and I look forward to seeing him all the way throught the main camp and into the next few years.

All in all it was a pretty good game and I am eager to see the rest of the tournament before main camp starts up.