Off Season Transactions Grading 2011

A look at the Oilers transactions during the offseason:

A The dealing for Ryan Smyth for Colin Fraser - This was a deal from the heavens. They essentially got Smyth for free therefore found their mentor that can still contribute. Will fill a key role for a rebuilding Oilers team.

A- Signing of Ryan Jones - 2yr/1.5 mil/yr - Ryan Jones was a pending UFA that was essential signing for the Oilers. It gives the Oilers a PKer that can play hard on the puck. Stabilizes the 3rd line with some two-way play. Price and term are perfect.

B Signing of Lennert Petrell and Antti Tyrvainen - Petrell is an experienced European hockey player that will bring a varying amount of ability to the Oilers organization, while Tyrvainen is a prototypical 4th line, in your face, pepperpot. Both of these players will help out with OKC with, perhaps, the occasional cup of coffee in the bigs. Both will fill a role, but neither will bring a lot of offense to the table.

C Signing of Ladislav Smid - 2yr/2.25 mil/yr - Ladislav Smid was a player I had pegged for the trading block. So, when he got his deal I was a little stunned by it. Term is fine, money is a little high, but overall, likely to be a signing that, eventually doesn't pan out. Smid needs to find an inkling of offense to justify this deal. All in all, he still adds to the depth on the D.

A Signing of Ben Eager - 3yr/1.1 mil/yr - Ben Eager's signing gave me great relief, as the Oilers have finally found an agitator that can back things up. He can take a regular shift and be a 4th line veteran fixture while kids ride shotgun with him. Term is fine, money is fine. Might be a year too long, but we'll see. The PK is going to have to get better with Eager in town.

B+ Signing of Darcy Hordichuk - 1yr/825K - Initailly I thought this signing was a bit of overkill with Eager just being signed a couple of hours previous. But, nothing wrong with having two agititors if one goes down. Term is good, price is right. He'll be a good guy to have around when some vindication is needed.

B- Signing of Cam Barker - 1yr/2.25mil - Low risk/high reward signing, but unless the Oilers find another top pairing Dman and push everyone down a rung, Barker will likely drown in the deep end this year. Barker is what he is, a cannon on the power play that will survive in limited even strength time. We'll see how his year plays out, but as it stands on today, someone on the D is setup to fail.

B+ The signing of Eric Belanger - 3yr/1.75 mil/yr - If the name Eric Belanger was replaced with the name Jason Arnott, I would have given this an A. Alas, it was not meant to be. The Oilers NEEDED a veteran center that could help out in multiple areas and thats what they get out of Belanger. Money is good, term is probably a year too long considering Lander will be breathing on his heels soon. Either that or they have big plans for one Mr. Shawn Horcoff. All in all, Belanger is a player that I'm happy the Oilers have put into the fold.

B The acquisition of Andy Sutton - Kurtis Foster served a purpose as a right handed shooting Dman, but he had a bad year last year. The Oilers could have still used his prowess, but I'm guessing the Oilers want to give a bigger role to Jeff Petry next year. Andy Sutton is a large body that plays tough and blocks shots. His presence will help the PK and add to the toughness quotient. But if he playing any higher than the bottom pairing, its a mistake, much like it was for Foster last year.

B+ The signing of Corey Potter - Two-way deal - Interesting signing of Corey Potter, in the sense that the Oilers can use him as veteran AHLer or he might have a shot at making the big club, mostly because of the fact that he shoots right. Led his AHL team in +/- (+25) and led his team in playoff scoring (9 pts in 12GP) as a Dman. Two very nice achievements.

C The Signing of Josh Green - Two-way deal - Josh Green was a signing that was meant to give OKC some vet depth. Problem is he'll probably be put in a position where he will relied upon to score goals, and for him those days are long gone, if they were ever there. He's a character guy that will understand his role, so in that sense its a good signing.

B+ The signing of Theo Peckham - 1yr/1.075 mil - Good money on the signing. Was hoping for more term on this one for the Oilers, like 2 or 3 yrs, but it looks like the organization still favors Smid over Peckham these days. Peckham is a jackhammer that will keep hammering his way up the depth chart. I think eventually he can become a middle pairing Dman, paired with an offensive type.

B The signing of Yann Danis - Two-way deal - The Oilers needed a goalie that can ride shotgun with Olivier Roy in OKC. Although I'm not sure if he's going to be enough of a threat to ultimately replace Nikolai Khabibulin. He'll be an interesting observation come training camp. He has posted some real solid numbers in the past.

B The signing of Ryan Keller - Two-way deal - It will be interesting to see how Ryan Keller fits in the Oilers organization. He's likely ticketed for OKC, and will be relied upon heavily to score goals down there. The question will be whether or not he can handle the pressure of doing so. He is coming off a season of 30+ goals, a solid postseason where his team (Binghampton) won the Calder Cup. He's really the only proven AHL scorer that OKC will likely boast this season.

A- The dealing of Andrew Cogliano - It was something that needed to happen and was likely long overdue. The fact that the Oilers used a lot of resources on him and the return on it was a 2nd round pick in 2013 is a little besmirching. The good news out of all of this is....the Oilers centers are getting deeper and better.

C The signing of Ryan O'Marra - Two-way deal - OKC team is getting pretty deep and I thought it would have been a good time for the Oilers to pull the pin on O'Marra. But on the other hand, the vet depth in OKC is a little lacking. He'll be a good guy to have around, I just hope he doesn't get in the way of kids that have earned their way on the team.

C+ The signing of Taylor Chorney - Two-way deal - At this stage of the game, Chorney isn't any more than an AHL Dman and he's about to start his journey towards the NHL all over again. The Oilers could use another vet Dman in OKC, so its no surprise that he is back.

2011-2012 Predictions

 

So, once in a while I like to think I know what I'm talking about. I'm usually wrong but hey... its still fun. I am going to look at the current Oiler roster as I see it. I hope to give an accurate description of what those players are like, where they sit in the lineup and where I think they will be by the end of the year.

I will start with what I believe the roster is (should be) and once everyone is slotted I will go from there.

   Smyth    - Gagner   -  Hemsky

  Hall    -  Horcoff - Eberle   

Paajarvi  - Belanger  -  Jones

          Eager   -  Lander     -  Hordichuk

           Omark  - Brule          

          Whitney    -   Gilbert

             Smid       -   Barker

            Peckham   -  Sutton  

   

Khabibulin

         Dubnyk 

    

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Starting at the top.

Ryan Smyth: 

Good old Smyth is back and plenty of people are happy about this. He brings leadership, heart and a winning attitude. I see Smyth as a stop gap only. It is possible he would be around for a season or so when the Oilers are ready to contend but I highly doubt he will be around long enough to see the Cup come back to Edmonton. He brings an element on the Powerplay that has been missing ever since he left the first time. I for one think that he will be a mentor for one player mostly and I will get to that shortly. I think this was a good move for the Oilers bringing him back as long as Tambellini doesnt fall in love with the guy and doesnt see when its time to cut bait.

PREDICTION: Ryan Smyth will find his groove along side Hemsky and Gagner, he will hit 25 goals this year and then sign a 3 year extension at  ~$3M~

Sam Gagner:

This is a slightly tougher call to make. Obviously Gagner is the best offensive option at center right now. He is a right handed shot which is lacking on this team. But with the drafting of Ryan Nugent Hopkins, the writing is on the wall for Gagner. There is no room in the NHL for the top two centers on any team to be that small. I personally think that by drafting RNH the Oilers dont have faith that Gagner will ever turn into a solid #1 center and have hedged their bets to ensure they still have options. Now a saving grace for Gagner is the possibility that he could move to the wing in the future, the problem with that is now the Oilers have to decide who gets pushed out in favor of Gagner.

PREDICTION:  The fact that there IS a possible saving grace for Gagner will not change the outcome. Gagner will have a solid start to the year with Smyth and Hemsky but will not play far and above the expectations the management has for RNH and that will spell the end for Gagner. I see him traded at or before the trade deadline. 

Ales Hemsky:

What can be said of the man that the Oilers have touted as the "go to" guy for several years now? Well for starters you can say that his time might be up. Or that his status on the team is at the very least about to take a hit. Hemsky has yet to really take on any type of leadership role, his attitude has been up and down for years now. He claims to be happy here and that he is excited to be a part of a young talented team but I am not completely sure. Exactly how happy is Hemsky going to be if he is suddenly given a 2nd line role? 

PREDICTION:Hemsky is going to come out of the gate flying with his new shoulder and old line mate. The choice between him and Gagner will be made early and he will be given his extension. He will sign for 5 years with a minimal raise. 

Taylor Hall:

The new face of the franchise is going to be one of those players that makes people come out of their seat for years to come and this upcoming year will be no different. It takes a special player to avoid the sophomore slump and this is a special player. Hall should be looking at that top line with a little hunger by now and it wont surprise me if he takes it shortly. 

PREDICTION:Hall will show this year why he is a special player by hitting the 30 goal mark and will be very close to being a point per game player. 

Shawn Horcoff:

The captain of the Oilers is a lot more important to this team than most people give him credit for. when he was injured the team fell apart and rather than being with in spitting distance of a playoff spot they fell all the way down to 30th. With Belanger on the team Horcoff will no longer be the only face off option, or PK option. With a healthy year and less defensive responsibility he may even find his offensive game again.  

PREDICTION: Horcoff will look like he is having a career year along side a blazing Taylor Hall, his reduced defensive minutes will allow him to stay healthy for the first time in a while. I see a 20 goal season out of Horcoff and a plus year. 

Jordan Eberle:

Eberle is an odd player. He doesn't buckle under pressure, he gives everything he has on every shift and he seems to truly love playing the game. he shows enough defensive awareness that he fits anywhere in the top three lines. He can do just about any role asked of him. He isn't "over the top" exceptional at anything but he is decent at everything.

PREDICTION: Eberle is going to have a slump year. He is going to bounce around the lineup while Renney tries to find a way to kick start him again. 12-15 goals and 20 assists. and this is with PP time. He WILL get better in front of the net with Smyth as a mentor though and most of these struggles will be attributed to him focusing on this newer style.

Magnus Paajarvi:

The speed of MPS is going to be a defining aspect for his entire career. Similar to when  Pavel Bure was ripping up the ice, defenders will know that they have to respect MPS due to sheer speed. He is going to have a long career burning defenders over and over. So far MPS has had an up and down time trying to adjust to the smaller ice in north america. Once he catches his groove he is going to be dangerous game in and game out. Add this to the fact that he can play in a defensive role and use his speed to check as well as drive the opposition's ice and you get a hell of a well rounded player. This is a player that will be a teams playoff dream.  

PREDICTION: Paajarvi is going to have a breakout year. He is going to figure out the ice here and he is going to be solid all year. He will spend most of the year on the 3rd line but will show he is just as capable on the PP as he is on the PK.

Ben Eager:

Eager is going to have a large impact on this team. Think Stortini that can skate better, hit more, agitate just as well, fights and can play. There is a question as to how much he will draw compared to how much he will take but he will be an effective enforcer that can take a regular shift. When the TDL came around last season he was the biggest guy that was moved that I thought the Oilers could use. Good on Tambellini for recognizing his worth and taking a run at him. 

PREDICTION: Eager is going to become a fan favorite because he is going to honestly protect the kids. I see his average 15 points for the year, 150+ PIM's and 1 major suspension. Nothing overly special about his year except that what he brings will have an immediate impact on the team.

Anton Lander: Lander is going to be a much larger piece on this team than most people give him credit for. In my opinion he will eventually become the 3rd line center but even if there ends up being better choiced on this team for that position he will not be out of place as a 4th liner. There isn't alot known about Lander other than the fact that he has made strides in the SEL over the last couple years. He has some defensive capability showing through already and according to reports from the media lately his skating has gotten much better since the last time they had seen him. 

PREDICTION: Lander is going to fulfill his destiny right out of training camp. He is going to steal himself a spot on the roster on the 4th line. He is going to show his tenacity and willingness to do what it takes to make an impression and Renney simply wont be able to send him down. 

Darcy Hortichuk:

Hortichuk is an interesting pick up from Tambellini this summer. There is no doubt that he is one of the premier heavy weights around the NHL today, and he can play a little as well. (at least he isnt going to hurt a team if he takes a shift) the reason its interesting is because they already picked up Eager and really didnt need a second enforcer. I think this is a move that allows Renney to slip him up higher into the lineup if he needs to protect any of the kids. 

PREDICTION: Hortichuk will have 15 fights, 100+ PIM's and will become a regular contributor for Renney.

Ryan Whitney:

Ryan Whitney is the rock that the entire defense is built from. Although he hasn't turned into some sort of superstar he is a hugely valuable piece to the Oilers. This is a guy that can be relied upon in every situation from quarterbacking a PP, solidifying a PK or working his magic 5V5. Renney runs the risk of burning out his #1 defender but so far Whitney has not shown that he can be over used. 

PREDICTION: Whitney is going to have a healthy year. He was snake bitten in the goal department for a long time last season but this year he is going to come out of the gate with a mission and he will go on a goal scoring streak before slowing down and getting into a groove. He will score the first Oiler goal of the season, and that will set the tone for him for the entire year.

Tom Gilbert:

Tommy Tommy Tommy... first and foremost WOW!!! This is a guy that broke Paul Coffee's record for point scored by a rookie, and then damn near fell off the map. I dont have his quality of competition handy but it was obvious that he has faced much stiffer opposition since then. Regardless, he got his payday and it is past time that he makes the most of it. As I understand it he has gotten better in the defensive zone (even if its still not enough) but what the fans (and I am sure management) expected out of him was offense. Gilbert will need to show that he can bring that before he will find himself a frequently relied upon player.

PREDICTION: Tom Gilbert will put up slightly higher numbers this year 10G 25A but it will be his defensive game that will end up standing out for him. Although most people will want to see more points out of such a highly paid guy, we will instead see a plus year for him. I'm going to call a +15 year playing along side Whitney.

Ladislav Smid:

The player some people love to hate, and the player some people so over rate they pay him over $2M.... Smid is a growing defender that has toughness. If he ever figured out how to use that toughness during the play rather than after the whistle he could become quite the shutdown defender. As of right now I am not convinced that he deserves the pay he has been given. I had thought that last year was Smid's year to break out and be the guy he has been touted to be but he did not pull it off. 

 PREDICTION: Smid is going to go another year with out a goal but I see him gathering a few assists playing with Barker and finishing off the year at a smaller minus rating. (-5) and I see him showing his ability to defend is getting better.

Cam Barker:

Whats the one phrase that can be said to describe a guy that has been bought out this early in his career? Bounce back. Cliche I know, but really. This is a guy that got 40 points in his rookie year and not only hasn't hit that again he hasnt even come close. He has the talent but much like Gilbert something happened and he just cant take that step to put up the points he was expected to. I think this is his year. He knows that even the Oilers wont put up with another shitty year out of him and if he pulls out another 5 point year and a -10 will spell the end (or at least suspension) of his NHL career. 

PREDICTION: Cam Barker is going to show signs that he can play in the NHL but it is not going to be all points based. He is going to rebound somewhat but he wont get more than 30 points. he will end the year a minus player (-5) along side his line mate Smid. He will not be offered an extension before the end of the season and will not be back if there are more consistent options available.

Theo Peckham:

Theo Peckham is the toughest defender the Oilers employ and he seems to relish the role. He isn't feared in the league yet but he is well on his way to making a name as a guy that is hard to play against. I still think that his upper limit is a 3rd pairing defender but I do think that he has the potential to be a stay at home guy that on a good team will end up being a 7th defender.

PREDICTION: Theo Peckham is going to feel a little threatened by the presence of Eager and Hortichuk so he is going to pick fights every chance he gets. It is going to be to the detriment of the team though as he is going to take more penalties than he draws.

Andy Sutton:

Sutton is an under rated stay at home defender. With only 4 points in 39 games last year people think right away that he cant generate points. I honestly do not know what situations he played in last season, but what sticks out for me is that in 39 games he had only 4 points and is still a plus player. To me that means he simply focuses on the defense side of the puck and he is good at that. I dont think Sutton has alot of room to grow and he is what he is. He does have the potential to bounce back points wise if given the opportunity and he could be a good mentor to a guy like Smid in regards to the defense first game.

PREDICTION: I see Sutton coming out and showing the Oiler fan base that he is not done in this league and can still contribute. Sutton is going to end the year as a +5 guy with 15 points.

Nikolai Khabibulin: 

Khabibulin has disappointed from the moment he got here. He has not been the tender the Oilers thought they were getting and I don't see how he can bounce back from that. At the moment he has the reins as the #1 but it wont take much (especially if the rest of the team is flying) for Renney to bench him and either run Dubnyk or maybe give Dannis an opportunity. This is it. If the Bulin Wall cant pick up his slacks and show that there is a little something left in the tank he is done. 

 PREDICTION:  Khabibulin does not show anything that makes the Oilers want to keep him. Either Tambellini finds some sucker willing to take a flyer on him (maybe as a temporary injury replacement) or they bury him in the minors to wait for a buyout. Regardless, he will be gone before the end of the season.

Devon Dubnyk:

Dubnyk is the prime example of a guy that cant seem to get his feet under him. He shows brilliance in small flashes but the consistency is very lacking. Dubnyk is very much a Roloson clone. As a young goalie he is going to struggle to make a name for himself and he wont really take off until he has learned how to be a fighter rather than relying on his skill alone.

PREDICTION: Unfortunately Dubnyk does not have a place on this team when they are ready to compete at the highest level. There are other prospects on the outside looking in and there are always more goalies on the market than there are jobs. Dubnyk will be given this year to show what he is capable of but he will be moved at the trade deadline for a draft pick.

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Extra forwards:

Linus Omark:

Omark is a flashy player with quite a bit of skill. He doesn't really fit in this lineup due to the fact that the guys playing in his position are simply better. It really has little to do with him not being good enough but that he wont be given the same opportunities some of his peers have been given. He doesnt belong on the 3rd line as he has little to no checking ability. and so far he isn't beating out his competition on the top 2 lines.

PREDICTION: Omark will be moved as early as possible. More than likely in a deal to get themselves another goal tender prospect, or as a package to get a top end defender. 

Gilbert Brule:

Brule is in a bad position. He has been traded...then not... then it was shown that he was being sent so he could be bought out and nothing more. The Oilers obviously dont believe in him or they would have let the problems heal and they would have more patience. I don't know where Brule can fit in the lineup anymore as he has been passed by everyone in the center position and the only wing position available might be Hortichuk's. Unless he comes to camp and literally beats the living crap out of all the competition he see's he wont get another shot.

PREDICTION: Brule spends some more time on the IR, gets Eberle's spot while Renney tries to get him fired up (see Eberle's prediction) and then eventually gets buried in the AHL.

Just a little rant

 
Well here we are again. Bottom of the standings, out of the playoffs and about to draft  #1 again.

Not impressed would be the first thing to come to mind.

This was supposed to be the season that we saw some improvement. Tambellini brought along all his top talented kids to bolster the lineup and to give the fans something to cheer about. Instead what we saw was a waste of the first year of 3 entry level contracts. We saw no work done on Tambellini's part to bring in the supporting staff that the kids would need if they were going to grow into their role's. Jones might be an exception here but lets be realistic, NOBODY thought he was going to be what he turned into. he was a spare part at most. (on that note, the Oilers should be glad to have him and they better not "glencross" him)

So at what point are we to look at our GM and ask "what have you done for us lately"? I am usually the type to give players the benefit of the doubt as circumstances can alter a year pretty quickly. But there really is no excuse for a GM to build a shit team. If I had the success rate at my own job I wouldn't HAVE a job. Did anyone really think there would be playoffs this year?? I doubt it. But who exactly was cheering loss after loss all the while thinking "we will get the chance to draft #1 again"?

This was a disgusting season and in my honest opinion there is only one person to blame, its not the players and its not the coach. it's the GM. By this time next year if the Oilers aren't playing meaningful games to the end of the season then at least some of that blame must be passed along to the owner as well. It is up to Katz to recognize that his golden boy isn't preforming and should be replaced. This is something that should be recognized as early as mid July. If Tambellini doesn't get the job done. If he cant make the right moves to put a competitive team together it will be time to replace him and give the new GM time to put something together.

And while I'm on the "bitching about Tambellini" bandwagon. I'll take a shot here too... WTF was going on in the war room on T.D.L.??? Penner was realistically only trade-able IF a Penner type player was coming back. To me it looks like they made that trade just to say they made a trade. Worthless and careless at best. Pointless comes to mind, but worse is that it is going to hurt the team more than they think when they get rid of one of their largest players. gathering a low end 1st round pick in a weak draft was NOT worth trading a player of that size. sure they got a defensive prospect back as well, but he's a guy they will see in 2-3 years at best. They needed to get return that they would see right away and that to me is just another example of something that Tambellini has failed to do.

July 15th, that's my cutoff. if there isn't a team in place that can be respected it should be time to say goodbye to the current boss and bring in someone that doesn't have the same lack of foresight.



until next time

Heazues